Rams vs Lions Same-Game Parlay Best Bets for Sunday Night

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) applauds after wide receiver Robert Woods (2) scows a two-point conversion against Detroit Lions during the second half at the SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. on Sunday, Oct. 24, 2021.Longtime Detroit QB Matthew Stafford leads his LA Rams into the Motor City for an NFC Wild-Card Game against the Lions on Saturday nightThe Lions are three-point home favorites while the total of 51.5 is the highest of Wild-Card WeekendSee a +399 Rams vs Lions same-game parlay for Detroit’s first home playoff game since 1994

A day that Detroit fans have waited 20 years for has finally arrived: a home playoff game for their Lions, the first since 1994. Upping the stakes even higher, the opponent is none other than ex-Lion Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams (10-7, 5-4 away, 10-6-1 ATS).

With kickoff scheduled for 8:15 pm ET, Detroit (12-5, 6-2 home, 12-5 ATS) is listed as a three-point home favorite in the NFL odds for Wild-Card Weekend. Today’s Rams/Lions same-game parlay pairs a Detroit win with a couple big days from the QBs.

Rams vs Lions Same-Game Parlay

The three legs of this Rams vs Lions SGP add up to a +399 price tag. After hitting a +211 Bills/Dolphins SGP in Week 18, I finished the season +6.24 units on NFL same-game parlays (plus another +1.69 in college football SGPs).

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Odds as of Jan. 14 on the FanDuel app. Claim a FanDuel sign up promo to wager on the 2024 NFL playoffs. 

Rams vs Lions Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Lions Moneyline

The first leg today is the Lions to win straight-up. Not only did Detroit finish the regular season with two more wins than the Rams, they were also seventh in DVOA and fifth at PFF, compared to LA in 17th and 10th, respectively.

Playing at home is also a huge advantage for the Lions, who have won six of their past seven at Ford Field. While none of those seven wins came against teams that finished the season over .500, they do include victories over the Broncos, Raiders, Falcons and Vikings, all of whom won at least seven games.

The Rams have played well on the road most of the season, though a 23-point loss at Dallas doesn’t bode well. The Cowboys are one of the common opponents for LA and Detroit, and the Lions fared considerably better in their trip to Big D, losing 20-19 on a contentious call on a last-minute two point conversion.

LAR vs DET Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Stafford Over 275.5 Passing Yards

The second leg is Stafford to hit the over for passing yards (275.5) in today’s NFL player props.

The over/under for LA vs Detroit is now sitting at 52.5 after opening at 51. This game is going to feature some fireworks. With a healthy complement of receivers – a rarity this year – Stafford should have another prolific day under center. He’s gone over 300 yards five times this season and has exceeded 275 passing yards in four of his last five games as the Rams have gotten healthier.

Steelers are in Cover 1 Robber with Minkah Fitzpatrick as the Robber. So this is as true of a one-on-one as you'll get between #39 and Matthew Stafford.

Watch Stafford keep his eyes on Kupp's Sit route, which holds Fitzpatrick, before flicking them out and hitting Nacua. pic.twitter.com/oVwu2pJhLQ

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 26, 2023

All season, Detroit has been much stronger on the offensive side of the ball than the defensive side. They finished the season 13th in Defensive DVOA and 18th at PFF. They finished sixth-last in the NFL in passing yards allowed (247.4 per game) while the Rams were 10th in that category on offense.

The game script I’m envisioning is one where the Lions are moving the ball and putting it in the paint, which is going to necessitate a heavy pass/run split from the Rams offense.

Rams vs Lions SGP Pick #3: Goff Over 258.5 Passing Yards

Listing Goff’s over/under nearly 20 yards lower than Stafford’s is just disrespectful. The Lions finished the season second in passing yards (258.9 per game) trailing only the Miami Dolphins.  The Rams were in the bottom half of the league in pass defense and rank 31st in coverage according to PFF.

On top of that, the Rams have one of the better rush defenses in the league (seventh at PFF and 12th in yards per game) which is going to motivate the Lions to put the ball in Goff’s hands even more than usual. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs is a big receiving threat out of the backfield (316 yards on 52 receptions) and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a number of screen passes from the Lions in an effort to slow down the Aaron Donald-led pass rush on the LA side.

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