New Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Lakers Picks, Predictions & Odds

Dec 4, 2023; Sacramento, California, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard CJ McCollum (3) reacts after defeating the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY SportsThe New Orleans Pelicans and Los Angeles Lakers meet in the West final of the NBA In-Season TournamentLeBron James (calf) is listed as “questionable” while Anthony Davis (groin/hip) is “probable” for Thursday’s gameSee the Pelicans vs Lakers odds and predictions for Thursday, Dec. 7

The Western Conference portion of the NBA In-Season Tournament will be decided in Las Vegas tonight when the New Orleans Pelicans (12-10, 13-8-1 ATS) square off with the Los Angeles Lakers (13-9, 10-12 ATS) at T-Mobile Arena at 6:00 pm PT/9:00 pm ET.

A rare neutral-court NBA game, Los Angeles is the edge in the Pelicans vs Lakers odds, but by the narrowest of margins.

Pelicans vs Lakers Odds

The Lakers are slight 1.5-point favorites in Thursday’s NBA odds and -125 on the moneyline. The Pelicans are +105 underdogs to advance to the championship game of the inaugural In-Season Tournament, where they would face the winner of Pacers vs Bucks.

Odds as of Dec. 7 on the Caesars Sportsbook app. 

Lakers Up Their Game During In-Season Tournament

The Lakers have looked like a team on a mission during the In-Season Tournament. Playing in an admittedly weak group, the Lakers ran up a 4-0 record against the Suns, Jazz, Trail Blazers, and Grizzlies with a ludicrous +18.5 point differential. They parlayed that success into a narrow 106-103 home victory over the Suns in the quarterfinals on the back of monstrous performances from their two superstars: LeBron James had a team-high 31 points, 11 assists, eight rebounds, and five steals, while Anthony Davis added 27 points, 15 rebounds, and two blocks.

Both James and Davis played heavy minutes in Tuesday’s win (40 and 39, respectively) and both are now listed on LA’s injury report for Thursday. LeBron is “questionable” with a lingering calf injury; Davis is “probable” due to groin and hip issues. Both have played in 21 of the Lakers’ 22 games this season.

No team has a shown a bigger discrepancy in play from In-Season Tournament games to plain regular-season games than the Lakers. Somehow, despite their +18.5 point differential during the In-Season Tournament, they have a negative point differential on the season as a whole. LA’s play away from home has been particularly concerning, sitting at just 4-7 on the road.

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Healthy New Orleans Among the NBA’s Elite?

The Pelicans are only 12-10 on the year and have some puzzling losses on their resume. But they have also been dealing with injuries for much of the season and, when fully healthy (which why will be tonight), have looked the part of an NBA title contender.

CJ McCollum (20.7 PPG, 6.0 APG) has played in just nine games so far, while Brandon Ingram (23.7 PPG, 5.3 APG) has missed three and Zion Williamson (22.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG) has missed four. New Orleans is 7-2 when McCollum plays and has only lost one game when all three were in the lineup together (an ugly 123-105 home loss to Atlanta).

The Pelicans survived a considerably tougher group than the Lakers, going 3-1 against the Nuggets, Clippers, Mavericks, and Rockets. They had another tough task in the quarterfinals, facing the Kings in Sacramento as 3.5-point underdogs. But New Orleans came back from an early 15-point deficit (32-17), took an eight-point lead into halftime (69-61), and never trailed in the second half of a 127-117 win.

At 13-8-1 against the spread, the Pelicans have the sixth-best cover rate in the NBA (61.9%).

New Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Lakers Prediction

Quietly, the Pelicans have one of the best “big threes” in the NBA and, now in their second season together, Ingram, Williamson, and McCollum are looking more cohesive than ever. With both LeBron and AD less than full speed, and the Lakers continuing to struggle everywhere except crypto.com Arena, the Pelicans are good value at plus-money to advance.

Pelicans vs Lakers pick: Pelicans moneyline (+105)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

7-4-2 ATS (+2.35 units)2-2 ML (-0.26 units)3-7 player props (-4.27 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.