Bank on Money to rediscover that knockout feeling

Why Mayweather will see Maidana off on Saturday

Betting against Floyd Mayweather was like gambling on The Undertaker losing at Wrestlemania until “The Dead Man” ruined that analogy by falling to Brock Lesnar last month. Competing as he does in a (relatively) legitimate sport as opposed to a predetermined form of entertainment, however, “Money” Mayweather still enters the market for each of his fights as a prohibitive favourite.

  This Saturday’s event, wherein the colourful protagonist squares up to Argentine hardman Marcos Maidana, is no different. I would find it very hard to make a compelling case for the limited Maidana to score a humungous upset at 7-1, while the most likely outcome based on precedent – Mayweather triumphing via decision – offers precious little value at 1/2. So as Guns N’ Roses once wondered, “Where do we go now?”

  I suggest somewhere we have not been since four fights and almost three years ago – the last time Mayweather triumphed inside the scheduled 12-round distance. I’ll explain shortly why I believe his doing the same to Maidana is worth a punt but the odds of this happening are as understandable as they are attractive.

  Even Floyd’s most recent early finish was something of a fluke. Though well in control against Victor Ortiz in September 2011, the fourth-round finish did not appear imminent. But after fouling Mayweather, Ortiz extended his arms in apology and was promptly flattened by sharp blows. Floyd is not one for forgiveness or clemency, unless it applies to himself.

  So you have to go back as far as 2005 to find Mayweather’s last indisputable stoppage victory. But there are several reasons to believe that may change on Saturday. Mayweather has heard the critics carping about his lack of genuine power and will not be happy at this assault on his masculinity. Despite starting his career down at super-featherweight, Mayweather has been established in the 147lb division for far longer than his opponent and the taller, rangier Las Vegas resident will be significantly the bigger man in the ring in his hometown. Maidana is also susceptible to body shots. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Maidana may well seal his own fate by doing what most observers are encouraging him to do and few recent Floyd foes have: applying non-stop pressure. Not only will this ostensibly sensible strategy leave Maidana open to Mayweather’s rapier counters, but his constant haranguing may force the best pound-for-pound boxer on the planet to open up with weighty shots just to keep Marcos off. And it’s worth bearing in mind that knocking an opponent out or unloading until they are defenceless are not the only ways of securing an early night.Facial damage – which Mayweather’s stinging punches can inflict – can often rule out even the bravest combatants.

So a Mayweather win inside the 12-round distance is certainly worth a gamble at 15/8. I would have picked that to occur over The Undertaker’s Streak ending.