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Florida vs Tennessee Odds, Predictions & Player Props (Jan. 16)
by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Updated Jan 16, 2024 · 9:23 AM PST
Jan 13, 2024; Athens, Georgia, USA; Tennessee Volunteers guard Dalton Knecht (3) controls the ball against the Georgia Bulldogs at Stegeman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY SportsThe Florida vs Tennessee rivalry continues on the hardcourt on TuesdayTennessee is a perfect 8-0 straight-up at home but only 4-3-1 ATSSee the Florida vs Tennessee odds, predictions, and player props for Jan. 16
Tonight in Knoxville, the #6 Tennessee Volunteers (12-4, 8-0 home, 2-1 SEC, 6-9-1 ATS) host the rival Florida Gators (11-5, 0-2 away, 1-2 SEC, 6-9-1 ATS) at Thompson-Boling Arena at 5:00 pm ET.
With a perfect home record on the line, the Vols have been listed as heavy favorites in their clash with the Gators, who are looking to get back to .500 in SEC play.
Florida vs Tennessee Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Gators | +9.5 (-120) | +380 | O 159.5 (-105) |
| Tennessee Volunteers | -9.5 (-100) | -500 | U 159.5 (-115) |
Tennessee is a 9.5-point home-court favorite in Tuesday’s college basketball odds along with a nearly unbettable -500 on the moneyline. The Gators come back as +380 underdogs to win straight-up.
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Odds as of Jan. 16 at ESPN Bet. Claim SBD’s exclusive ESPN Bet promo to get $150 in bonus bets for today’s college basketball slate.
Florida is getting just 16% of moneyline handle in the college basketball public betting splits, but 55% of ATS handle to cover the spread.
Tennessee Still Perfect at Home
After losing three straight non-home games to top-20 teams in late November, the Volunteers responded by winning eight of their next nine, including an 86-79 (home) win over then-#20 Illinois and a 90-64 (home) rout of then-#22 Ole Miss. The Vols only loss in that span was a 77-72 setback at Mississippi State, a game they led by 14 in the second half.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3axtOEAGUU4
Northern Colorado transfer Dalton Knecht continues to be the go-to guy on offense for Tennessee. The 6’6 senior guard is averaging a team high 17.2 PPG along with 4.1 RPG. While Purdue’s Zach Edey is running away with the award (again), Knecht remains a top-five favorite in the Wooden Award odds at DraftKings.
Three other Vols are scoring in double-ps: Jonas Aidoo (11.2 PPG), Zakai Zeigler (10.5 PPG), and Josiah-Jordan James (10.1 PPG). Tennessee’s offense, which finished last season just 64th in efficiency at KenPom, is up to 20th this year.
They have completely altered their style of play with Knecht in the mix. They played at the 288th-fastest tempo last season and are up to 84th this year.
Defense, of course, continues to be Tennessee’s calling card. They currently rank fourth in defensive efficiency, sixth in effective field-goal percentage (44.0), and eighth in two-point percentage (42.7).
2024 Wooden Award Odds: College Basketball Player of the Year TrackerRead More
Florida Snaps Two-Game Losing Streak by Crushing Arkansas
The Gators started SEC play on the wrong foot, dropping an 87-85 (home) decision to then-#6 Kentucky before getting manhandled 103-85 (away) by Ole Miss.
But Todd Golden’s team got off the mat last time out, destroying Arkansas 90-68 (home) led by 20 points off the bench from Riley Kugel on 8-of-14 shooting.
While their straight-up record (11-5) is not dissimilar from Tennessee’s, Florida’s quality of wins are much worse. Tennessee owns two victories over top-15 KenPom teams. Florida hasn’t beaten a team rated higher than 69th (Pitt).
The Gators have had their chances, too, going 0-4 against Baylor (14th), Wake Forest (37th), and Kentucky (19th), though they did cover as 3.5-point home underdogs in their 87-85 setback to UK.
In their only two true road games, the Gators lost by 11 to Wake Forest (82-71) and 19 to Ole Miss (103-85).
FLA vs TEN Player Props
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Three-Pointers Made |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Knecht (TEN) | 17.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) | 4.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov -120 | Un -105) |
| Josiah-Jordan James (TEN) | 10.5 (Ov -110 | Un -115) | 6.5 (Ov -145 | Un +115) | 2.5 (Ov +120 | Un -155) | 1.5 (Ov -160 | Un +125) |
| Santiago Vescovi (TEN) | 9.5 (Ov -125 | Un -100) | 3.5 (Ov -160 | Un +125) | 3.5 (Ov +135 | Un -175) | OFF |
| Tyrese Samuel (FLA) | 11.5 (Ov -105 | Un -120) | 7.5 (Ov -130 | Un -100) | OFF | OFF |
| Walter Clayton Jr (FLA) | 12.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) | 3.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 2.5 (Ov +105 | Un -130) | 1.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120) |
| Will Richard (FLA) | 10.5 (Ov -100 | Un -130) | 3.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov -180 | Un +140) |
| Zakai Zeigler (TEN) | 14.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) | 2.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110) | 5.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) | 2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -190) |
| Zyon Pullin (FLA) | 14.5 (Ov -105 | Un -120) | 3.5 (Ov +115 | Un -150) | 3.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125) | OFF |
Player props from the DraftKings app.
In the college basketball player props for Florida vs Tennessee, Knecht has the highest point total, unsurprisingly, at 17.5, which is just 0.3 points higher than his season average. Zyon Pullin (14.5) is the highest among the Gators, even though Walter Clayton Jr (15.9 PPG) is the team’s leading scorer.
Florida vs Tennessee Prediction
Tennessee rates as a better team in almost every facet of the game, and the Vols also enjoy a considerable home-court advantage. It is going to be a massive shock if Florida picks up its first top-60 win of the season at Thompson-Boling Arena.
At the same time, the over/under for Knecht looks a touch too high. While it’s almost bang-on his season average, that average is inflated by a couple massive games (36 points against Georgia and 37 against UNC). He’s actually only gone over 17 points in six of 16 games this season, staying under in the other ten.
FLA vs TENN Pick: Tennessee to win + Knecht under 17.5 points (+120 same-game parlay on the FanDuel app)
Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:
ATS: 13-11 (+0.79 units)Moneyline: 0-1 (-1.00 units)Player props: 1-2 (-1.13 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
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