North Dakota State vs Montana Odds, Spread & Prediction – FCS Semifinal

Jan 8, 2022; Frisco, TX, USA; North Dakota State Bison quarterback Cam Miller (7) passes against the Montana State Bobcats during the first half of the FCS Championship at Toyota Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY SportsNorth Dakota State and Montana battle in the FCS semifinals on SaturdayThe latest betting odds favor the Grizzlies by a slim marginRead below for NDSU vs Montana odds, spread, and prediction

The #2 seed Montana Grizzlies (12-1) will host the unseeded North Dakota State Bison (11-3) in the FCS semifinals on Saturday, December 16, at 4:30 PM ET on ESPN2. The game will be played at Washington-Grizzly Stadium in Missoula.

The Grizzlies come in as 1.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 51.5 points. This game will be the 11th time North Dakota State and Montana have played, with the Bison leading the all-time series 6-4.

Let’s dive into the NDSU vs Montana odds as we offer our prediction for Saturday’s FCS Semifinal.

North Dakota State vs Montana Odds

In the NDSU vs Montana odds for the FCS Semifinal, the Bison are -105 moneyline underdogs. As the -125 favorite, the Grizzlies have 56% implied win probability.

Odds as of December 16, 2023, at ESPN Sportsbook. Sign up to bet NDSU vs Montana using the ESPN BET promo code “DIME” to receive $250 in bonus bets. 

Bison Betting Analysis

North Dakota State dominated South Dakota 45-17 in their quarterfinal matchup. The Bison defense forced three turnovers, and the offense jumped out to a 35-3 halftime lead behind QB Cam Miller’s 4 total TDs.

While Miller lit up the Coyotes’ defense with his arm (14 yards per attempt), NDSU has typically been more reliant on their run game this season. Matt Entz’s program averages a staggering 241.8 rushing yards per game and features one of the FCS’s best backs in Tamerik Williams (6.3 YPC).

With a career-high 162 yards and two big touchdown runs of 44 and 75 yards against Montana State, senior running back TaMerik Williams is our Nodak Insurance Company Player of the Game! pic.twitter.com/JgeHJ05YEi

— NDSU Football (@NDSUfootball) December 3, 2023

Although the defense is still allowing nearly 20 points per game on the year, they were dominant in the quarterfinals. They held South Dakota to only 52 yards rushing on 2.6 yards per carry. Linebacker Cole Wisniewski and the Bison lead the FCS with 21 interceptions this season and will be hungry for more.

In terms of betting trends, the Bison haven’t exactly been printing money this season. They are 5-7-1 ATS, as they lost three games in the regular season for the first time since 2010. The good thing is they appear to be playing their best football at the most important time.

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Grizzlies Betting Analysis

Montana is riding a 9-game winning streak after beating Furman 35-28 in overtime last week in the quarterfinals. QB Clifton McDowell had 326 total yards and 2 TDs to lead the offense. The defense came up with some key stops in OT to secure the win.

While McDowell put the team on his back in the quarterfinal, the team’s overall offensive performance was concerning. Elite running back duo Eli Gillman and Nick Ostmo combined for just 21 yards on 19 carries despite combining for 1,495 yards and 18 touchdowns on the season.

Montana’s defense, meanwhile, ranks 18th in FCS in total defense. It’s better against the run, ranking ninth in rushing yards allowed per game and allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. Their secondary has been much more vulnerable, ranking 65th against the pass but also ranks fifth nationally with 16 interceptions.

Montana has been a betting man’s friend this season, as the Grizzlies have covered the spread in 10 of their games. The “under” has hit in eight of Montana’s games, with the Grizzlies’ stifling defense primarily responsible.

North Dakota State vs Montana Prediction

This matchup features two of the top rushing offenses in the FCS, with both teams relying heavily on the ground game. Both quarterbacks have dual-threat ability, but NDSU’s Miller has been more accurate throwing the ball, boasting a 74% completion percentage compared to McDowell’s 59.5%.

After witnessing how Furman’s dual-threat quarterback, Tyler Huff, exploited the Grizzlies in the quarterfinals, we believe the Bison’s Miller will find similar success on Saturday. During last season’s playoff meeting, Miller had 81 rushing yards and two scores on the ground to propel NDSU to a 49-26 victory.

The Bison are the more complete team and are catching fire at the right time. Recent news that coach Entz is taking a job at USC has some concerned about a potential distraction, but we think the players will be motivated to send their longtime coach off with another championship.

Pick: North Dakota State Moneyline (-105)

 

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